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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".

After-Dark Attacks

As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.

Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.

Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.

Tactical Assessments

It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.

While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.